Data through September 27, 202613d lag
On Cloudtilt maintains stability amidst dormant sneaker market
On Cloudtilt remains in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.98, indicating consistent demand without significant shifts. Despite this, the product shows a modest alpha score of 1.16, suggesting it slightly outperforms its peers in the United States market. The collaboration with Loewe has provided periodic boosts, but overall momentum remains moderate.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Collaboration with Loewe(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=98%, confidence=99%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-36.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 5 of 6 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 16% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
NormalSignal adequate -- hedge position sizing on tactical shifts.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +85.19% (structural, 6w check)
Trend rate changed by +15.16% (structural, 6w check)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 2, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Current Year Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-0.262153268841917).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine a dynamic seasonal timing shift for On Cloudtilt.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Apr 5 – Apr 19
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Oct 18 – Nov 1
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline