Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Adidas Samba struggles to gain traction in US sneaker market
Adidas Samba is currently in a dormant regime, with a stability score of 0.97, indicating a lack of movement in the United States market. Despite various collaborations and releases, such as the Kith x Adidas Samba Golf Pack, the product has not gained significant attention, as reflected in its low alpha score of 0.14. The ADI score of 39.1, ranking fourth among peers, suggests that the Samba is underperforming in desirability compared to competitors like Adidas Gazelle and Nike Air Max.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Lack of distinctive market positioning(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=97%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-13.9% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Below-average desirability. Attention needed.
Desirability fading. Reassess positioning.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 3 of 5 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 86% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +37.84% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by +10.44% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 3, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Current Year Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-1.6415813740268959).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shift.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Jul 19 – Aug 2
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Dec 27 – Jan 11
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline